Experiments · Negative results
Arena Elo versus honesty
Setup and what was tested: experiment card.
Numbers.
n=24 matched models. Spearman(Elo, honesty) = −0.105; Spearman(Elo, accuracy) = +0.811. Eight MASK rows had no frozen alias (version mismatch or absent on the pin).
Outcome.
Fail: Elo correlates with accuracy, not honesty, on this freeze. See W-6.
Key findings
Arena Elo tracks MASK accuracy, not honesty, on the frozen join. Do not treat the ranking as honesty selection.