Experiments · Negative results
Moral Machine same-person choices
Setup and what was tested: experiment card.
Numbers.
33,953,503 complete pairs; 1,850,854 units with at least 8 pairs; seed-7 cap 20,000 units. Held-out mean accuracy: intercept 0.529, Number 1-D 0.576, geometry 0.682. Geometry beats 1-D by 0.106 and intercept by 0.153. Bootstrap 95% intervals 0.102–0.109 and 0.149–0.157; every replicate still clears 0.05. Geometry without Number matches geometry (0.682).
Outcome.
Fail of Number-only as the same-person policy; pass of detecting a wider pattern. Traffic dilemmas only. See W-12.
Key findings
Same-person Moral Machine geometry predicts held-out choices better than a Number-only score or a person intercept on this freeze.