Towards Superintelligence Alignment
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AI Futures / forecasting cluster

Schedule uncertainty (when things happen) can dominate mechanism uncertainty (what fails first)—this project uses these forecasts mainly as schedule cues, not as technical findings about alignment mechanisms.

Introduction

The AI Futures and forecasting cluster produces explicit scenario narratives, timeline estimates, and shared prediction infrastructure for tracking advanced AI development. Its work informs policy urgency and schedule-shaped governance stress tests without claiming to resolve alignment mechanism questions. Forecasts interact with Goodhart Selection mainly as timing cues for deployment ecology, not as technical discharge of typed bridges.

Who carries it: AI Futures Project (AI 2027); Epoch AI; Metaculus; FRI

What they aim to do. Inform high-stakes decisions with explicit, trackable forecasts about when and how advanced AI capabilities may arrive.

The hard question. Schedule uncertainty (when things happen) can dominate mechanism uncertainty (what fails first)—this project uses these forecasts mainly as schedule cues, not as technical findings about alignment mechanisms.

What they produce. The cluster produces explicit scenario narratives (notably AI 2027), timeline estimates, and shared prediction infrastructure for tracking AI development trajectories.

Key terms. Shared vocabulary includes AI 2027-style scenarios, timelines, TAI thresholds, automation of R&D, and structured scenario planning for policy and strategy audiences.

Related field cruxes. Goodhart Selection

What they contribute. Schedule-shaped stress tests for governance and deployment planning (App F)—how Goodhart Selection pressures might unfold under compressed timelines without claiming to resolve selection mechanics.

How this project treats it. A macro scenario about capability arrival does not imply discharge of any typed bridge in the measurement spine; forecasting informs urgency, not Corrigibility or Inner Alignment verdicts.

See the coverage matrix for evidence tagged to this agenda, and the glossary for shared terms.